Bypass has ‘blown out’

By Lia Bichel and Lilly O’Gorman
TRAFFIC on the Pakenham Bypass has reached dangerous levels, an Auditor-General’s report states.
The report, titled Management of Major Road Projects, was tabled in State Parliament last week.
It states that the volume of traffic on the Pakenham and Hallam bypasses had dangerously overshot earlier forecasts, exceeding capacity 16 years ahead of time.
“Over most of the Pakenham Bypass’s length, daily traffic in 2010 exceeded the 2011 forecasts by more than 50 per cent and was close to the volumes expected in 2031,” the report states.
“The Hallam Bypass’s daily traffic in 2010 overshot the 2011 forecasts from 15 to 29 per cent for different sections.”
According to the report, the consequences were serious.
“The decision to fund these schemes was based on an assumption that they would give sufficient capacity for the next 20 to 25 years. By 2010, this capacity has been used up.”
VicRoads Director Major Projects George Mavroyeni said a number of initiatives would be adopted in response to the increased volume of traffic.
”VicRoads will look to identify best practice for traffic modelling including the Auditor General’s suggestion of approaches used in other countries such as the UK and New Zealand,” Mr Mavroyeni said.
He said that, despite the need to improve VicRoads’ approach to traffic modelling, the benefits of VicRoads projects were underestimated in the audits.
“VicRoads will also work on developing a Project Outcomes Measurement Plan to apply to all future projects,” he said.
The report stated that VicRoads did not adequately assess how many drivers would be induced away from established roads and on to the bypasses because of their convenience, did not communicate the risks, or estimate the impact on the economic benefits.
The report recommended that VicRoads “assess the significance of induced traffic for all major road projects and take account of this when forecasting traffic and estimating the economic benefits”.