The upcoming Werribee by-election isn’t just another date on the Victorian political calendar, it’s the first major test of Brad Battin’s leadership of the Liberal Party. Freshly installed as Opposition Leader, Battin has made it clear where his focus lies: not in the traditional blue-ribbon seats of Melbourne’s inner east, but in the fast-growing, politically volatile outer suburbs.
When recently asked about his targets for the next state election, Battin didn’t hesitate: “Pakenham first,” he said, followed by Hastings, Bass, and the Narre Warren seats. But before Victorians return to the polls in 2026, the Werribee byelection on 8 February will offer a preview of just how potent Battin’s growth corridor strategy might be, and whether he can turn voter frustration into electoral success.
Victorian politics has long been defined by its urban-rural divide, with Labor dominating Melbourne’s inner suburbs while the Liberals found strength in affluent eastern districts. But that landscape is shifting. Labor has chipped away at Liberal heartland over the past few elections, leaving the party with shrinking strongholds. Battin’s response? A bold pivot to the state’s growth corridor where rapid population increases have outpaced infrastructure, public services are stretched thin, and residents are feeling left behind.
“Pakenham, they’re desperate for a change,” Battin told Sky News recently. His confidence isn’t misplaced. In the 2022 election, Labor’s grip on seats like Pakenham and Bass weakened significantly, with both seats now held on razor-thin margins of just 0.39 per cent and 0.24 per cent respectively. These growth corridors, particularly in the southeast, are where Battin believes the next election will be won or lost.
But before tackling Pakenham or Bass, Battin’s strategy faces its first real test in Werribee.
Labor has held Werribee, in various forms, for nearly five decades. It’s deep in traditional Labor territory, yet the signs of discontent are hard to ignore. Crime rates are up, traffic congestion is choking daily commutes, and promises of infrastructure upgrades have worn thin. Covering growth areas like Werribee and Wyndham Vale, the electorate’s rapid expansion has only magnified frustrations over government neglect.
If Battin’s Liberals can significantly reduce Labor’s current 10% margin or, in an unlikely but game-changing scenario, win the seat outright, it will be a political earthquake. Not only would it show that Labor’s dominance in the west is crumbling, but it would also validate Battin’s growth corridor strategy, setting the stage for an aggressive campaign across similar seats in 2026.
Battin’s political career is defined by his ability to defy the odds. In 2018, he narrowly retained his seat of Gembrook with a margin of just 0.79 per cent in an election that was brutal for the Liberals. By 2022, while the party’s statewide vote continued to decline, Battin didn’t just survive, he thrived. Running in the new seat of Berwick, he increased his margin to 4.17 per cent, proving he could hold the line even when the political winds weren’t in his favour.
This resilience is precisely why Battin’s leadership deserves stability beyond the usual leadership speculation that plagues oppositions. He’s not just a placeholder leader, he’s a proven campaigner who knows how to connect with suburban voters. The Werribee byelection will be his chance to prove that his personal electoral success can be replicated across the state.
While the focus is on Werribee, the implications stretch far beyond. A strong Liberal performance will send a clear message: that the party is no longer content to play defence in its traditional heartlands but is ready to take the fight to Labor in areas where voters are desperate for change.
A swing of even five per cent or more would rattle Labor, particularly with key growth corridor seats like Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, and Cranbourne still in play. While these seats currently hold margins of around eight per cent, Labor’s vote has been softening, and a strong Liberal showing in Werribee would force the government to divert resources and attention to defend these vulnerable areas.
Conversely, a poor result could embolden Battin’s critics within the party. But given his track record, holding seats under pressure and growing margins when others faltered, there’s every reason to believe he’s the right leader at the right time.
The Werribee by-election isn’t just about who will represent one seat in the Victorian Parliament. It’s about the future direction of the state’s political landscape. For Brad Battin, it’s a chance to prove that his leadership isn’t just about survival, it’s about renewal, ambition, and the belief that the Liberals can win back the suburbs many believe that Labor has taken for granted.
On 8 February voters in Werribee will cast their ballots. But the real verdict will be on Battin’s vision for Victoria and whether he has what it takes to lead his party to victory in 2026. This is his moment. Let’s see if he seizes it.
